Technical Insight
Market News (Market News)
OADMs set for huge growth The global consumption of optical add/ drop multiplexers (OADMs), an extremely important factor in the increased use of optical communications, will accelerate from $135.2 million in 2000 to $3.46 billion in 2005, then expand further to $29.8 billion by 2010, according to ElectroniCast Corp (see ). The company defines the OADM as a single-fiber unit, i.e. one fiber in, one out. Units will advance from the currently available 16 wavelength fixed-connection modules to 256 wavelength fully reconfigurable units and eventually to 1024 wavelength capacity. To achieve this, the following components are needed by early 2005: laser diodes with high powers and precise wavelengths for 50 GHz spacing, covering the nominal 12601660 nm band; optical fiber amplifier systems spanning the 12601660 nm band with uniform high gain and acceptable noise level; 1024 (2 2) transparent optical crossconnect switches. Optoelectronic components such as amplifiers, receivers and transponders comprise just over half of the total OADM component cost, which in turn makes up about half of the OADM value. "OADM and Components Forecast" is available from ElectroniCast see "www.electronicast.com". Broadband drives millimeter wave growth Over the next five years, the total millimeter wave and high frequency market including module level equipment and components is set to grow at 29% per year from $3.5 billion in 2000 to $12.4 billion by 2005. ABI cites explosive growth in applications such as LMDS and broadband satellite systems. In addition, automotive applications such as collision warning radar will also gain in importance. Shipments of these systems, which use GaAs MMICs operating at 76 GHz, are expected to exceed a total of 1 million units in trucks and passenger cars within five years. In the near term, LMDS will be the key market driver. While only accounting for 9% of the market at present, this application is expected to grow at a rate of 30% over the next five years. High expectations still prevail for broadband satellite systems, says ABI. Although MMDS and fixed wireless systems operating at 3.5 and 5.8 GHz could temper satellite sales, total shipments of broadband customer premise equipment are still expected to exceed 2 million units in 2005. Driving these applications will be further advances in high frequency GaAs MMICs. The market for these devices will exceed $200 million in the next five years. "Millimeter Wave: Broadband, Automotive Radar and Semiconductors" is available from ABI see "www.alliedworld.com". North American opto markets to expand The North American market for optoelectronic components, which generated revenues of $1.97 billion in 1999, is set to grow to $10.11 billion in 2006, according to Frost & Sullivan. The study identifies LEDs, photodetectors and laser diodes as the fastest-growing segments, while an important market also exists for IR optocouplers. Driving this expansion are developments in high brightness GaN-based blue and green LEDs, which have greatly expanded the scope for applications in automotive, video displays, signage and traffic signals. Also, InP-based laser diodes are widely used as the primary light sources in the fiber-optic communications market, and vertical emitters are providing a highly manufacturable, low-cost light source suited to both telecom and datacom applications. The photodetector segment in particular is expected to produce high returns by integrating photodetectors with laser diodes in transceiver modules. "North American Optoelectronics Markets" is available from Frost & Sullivan see "www.frost.com". Free space optics firms face demand surge Free space optical technologies are expected to result in a $1 billion market early in 2003. According to Allied Business Intelligence (ABI), after more than a decade of low growth, free space optical vendors will face an onslaught in demand. Free space optics employs transceivers to send modulated data through the atmosphere, relying on line of sight to make connections between hubs and customer premises. "A major shift is underway in the free space optical market," says Andy Fuertes, ABI s VP of Communications Technologies. "While these technologies were used for years in niche applications, they re ready for the delivery of broadband capabilities in mainstream carrier networks." Deployments are expected to be in urban environments, a market the technology will share with LMDS. Traditional applications are also expected to grow, but the carrier/access market will overshadow all other segments of the market within five years. "The leading applications for free space optics in 2000 were wireless bridges," adds Fuertes. "However, in 2005, carrier/access applications are expected to account for over 70% of the market." (see ) "Free Space Optics: Technologies and Opportunities in the Carrier Class Network" is available from ABI see "www.alliedworld.com".
