Technical Insight
Fiber deployment in North America set to slow down (Market News)
The fiber capacity required in the US is currently the subject of hot debate (see Compound Semiconductor August 2001, p4). Part of this discussion hinges on studies touting a fiber glut. A new report by KMI shows that fiber deployment in North America will slow significantly over the next two to three years, to be replaced by a period of industry consolidation. At the end of 2000, carriers in the US, Canada and Mexico had deployed a total of 672 000 route-km of fiber-optic cable in long-haul networks. With an average count of 52 fibers per cable, nearly 35 million km of fiber has been laid five times the amount of four years earlier. At its peak in 1999, the amount of cable being laid was 140 000 route-km, 100 000 route-km of which was in the US. In the next two years, the acceleration will be checked, and the amount of cable laid in North America annually will fall to 35 000 route-km in 2003. This reduction will be cushioned as more fibers are included in each cable (see ); in terms of the amount of fiber actually laid per km, the drop is from 9.8 million fiber-km in 2000 to about 7 million fiber-km in 2003. Beyond 2003, says KMI, improved business conditions and friendlier capital markets will combine with growth in broadband demand as more end users shift away from dial-up modems and put more traffic on the Internet backbone. The resulting demand will lead to positive growth in the amount of fiber laid, although this will be at levels below those of the peak years of 1999 and 2000. "Fiber-Optic Networks of Long-Distance Carriers in North America: Market Developments and Forecast" is available from KMI Corp see www.kmicorp.com.
