Gartner ups phone forecast as Siemens loses out
Strong first-quarter growth in all major cell phone handset markets has prompted Gartner to raise its forecast on total sales for 2005 to 750 million units.
The UK-based market analyst said that the mobile phone industry had a record first quarter, with worldwide sales of 181 million units, up 17% on last year.
Cell phone handsets represent the biggest single application area for RFICs based on GaAs, with the technology used primarily in power amplifiers.
The record sales volume for the time of year convinced Gartner to revise is prediction up from its previous forecast of 720 million units.
If correct, the new figure would represent a 13% increase on 2004 "“ itself a record-breaking year for the technology. Both Nokia and Skyworks Solutions have made similar predictions on total 2005 sales in the past month.
"In mature markets replacement sales ensured a buoyant performance," said Gartner's mobile specialist Ben Wood, who added that shipments in the Asia/Pacific region were strong thanks to the Chinese New Year festival, and that there was rapid growth in the emerging markets such as the Middle East, Africa and eastern Europe.
While Nokia, Motorola and Samsung all consolidated their positions as the top three phone suppliers by unit sales, the German company Siemens has dropped down the rankings, and recorded its lowest market share since 1999.
"The uncertainty about the future of Siemens' business has hurt it as network operators and key channels lose confidence in the company and its products," said Wood.
Siemens was the only company in the top six suppliers to sell fewer cell phones in the first quarter of 2005 than in the same period last year.
A clear fourth in the rankings one year ago, the German company is now set to slip behind SonyEricsson into sixth place. Both had a market share of 5.5% in the first quarter.
Increased overall sales may not translate into fat profits, warned Wood. "More phones are being sold, but profit margins are shrinking," he explained. "This is because consumers in emerging markets want cheap handsets, and competition in more-developed markets keeps prices low."
Wood expects some of the struggling smaller manufacturers to be bought out, and some to exit the market.
