Emerging segments drive transceiver growth
However, 2004 will be critical for the suppliers; there are well over 40 companies clamoring for orders throughout a vast array of new and existing segments. So far, there has been surprisingly little consolidation, says Tom Hausken, director of communication component research at Strategies Unlimited. “It is impossible to predict who will eventually emerge as the new market leaders,” said Hausken, “but a change in the lineup is certain, and we are seeing some of that already.”
The market fell by 80% from its peak in 2000 to around $500 million in 2003. It will recover in 2004 and grow at a compound annual rate of 24% by 2008. The recovery will be boosted by the growing use of optical links in LANs and SANs that will spill over to create new demand for long wavelength transceivers in campus, and to a lesser extent, metro networks.
The report “Long-Wavelength High-Data-Rate Lasers—2004” also finds that:
* Promising opportunities include emerging form-factors and new approaches to carry 10 Gbit/s traffic over legacy multimode fiber. These latter developments will drive the use of long-wavelength transceivers where short-wavelength (850 nm) transceivers have been traditionally used.
* Two suppliers associated with enterprise network products, Agilent and Finisar, led sales in 2003. Such datacom transceiver suppliers are pushing toward higher-end products, while some traditionally high-end telecom suppliers are seeking to capture sales to enterprise equipment makers.
* In all, dozens of companies are competing over a changing array of segments. Because every supplier has cut back severely, no company can feel secure about its own ability to recover, or in the case of start-ups, just to make it to first base.
