GaAs IC market "worth $3.7 billion in 2008"
Market research firm Strategy Analytics predicts that the global GaAs device market will grow from $2.7 billion in 2003 to $2.9 billion in 2004 and $3.7 billion in 2008.
Mobile phones will continue to be the dominant application area: "The cellular market represented over 41% of the total demand for GaAs devices in 2003, and will still account for at least 33% in 2008," said Asif Anwar, director of the analyst company's GaAs service.
Demand for non-cellular applications is expected to increase, with Anwar forecasting double digit annual growth in automotive radar applications through to 2008.
He expects that the GaAs wireless market will see a drop in revenue after 2006, although volumes will continue to increase. "There is a constant battle to get the price down for GaAs ICs, with price erosion typically 8-12% per annum."
He believes that the effect of the weakened dollar on the market "has already been felt", pointing out that US exchange rates have been relatively stable for quite a few months.
Competing technologies, such as SiGe, are expected to take market share from GaAs, but in the power amplifier market, GaAs is expected to remain the dominant choice until at least 2008.
Anwar believes GaAs will continue to dominate future high-power, high-frequency applications, but that SiGe devices may compete in applications requiring lower power.
Strategy Analytics' GaAs IC market forecast is significantly different from that produced by rival market research firm The Information Network (TIN). For 2004 TIN predicted a GaAs IC market of $3.9 billion, even higher than Strategy Analytics' 2008 figure (see related story) .
Anwar was not able to account for the discrepancy, but said: "We have a high degree of confidence in our figures. It's not just a case of being conservative. We are being realistic."
