Gartner predicts 8% growth in handsets for 2005
An analyst at the market research company Gartner says that it remains to be seen whether the record-breaking level of replacement cell phone sales will continue through 2005.
Replacement sales in north America and western Europe were a key driver behind the huge increase in sales volume recorded in 2004, which culminated in almost 200 million cell phones being sold in the fourth quarter.
Gartner estimated the final sales figure for the record-breaking year at 674 million units, up 30% on 2003 "“ itself a record year. "The market exceeded even the most optimistic forecasts in 2004," said Ben Wood, principal analyst for mobile terminals research at Gartner.
But whether this momentum will continue remains an open question. While Gartner predicts 8% unit growth to 730 million units in 2005, this will depend on consumers in both established and emerging markets continuing to buy new phones.
"In mature markets, it remains to be seen whether the record-breaking levels of replacement sales can be sustained," said Gartner's Hugues De La Vergne, who specializes in mobile sales in the Americas. He adds that in emerging markets the key battleground will be sub-$50 phones.
Nokia consolidated its position as the market leader in the most recent quarter, with a 33% share of all handset sales. That gave the Finnish company a total share of 30.7% in a year that had started badly. Nokia's share fell below 29% in the first half of the year.
Meanwhile, Motorola has leapfrogged back over Samsung to reclaim second spot in the handset sales rankings, thanks largely to the success of its ultra-slim RAZR V3 phone.
Samsung had claimed second spot from Motorola earlier in 2004, but the Gartner analysts now believe that the Korean company will need to change strategy and expand its line of high-volume, low-margin products to maintain its challenge.
The final 2004 rankings for sales of phones to end-users were as follows (source - Gartner):
#1 Nokia - 30.7% (down 4.1% on 2003 share)
#2 Motorola - 15.4% (up 0.9%)
#3 Samsung - 12.6% (up 2.1%)
#4 Siemens - 7.2% (down 1.2%)
#5 LG - 6.3% (up 1.3%)
#6 Sony Ericsson - 6.2% (up 1.1%)
#Others - 21.6% (down 0.1%)
