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LED market revenues to peak before the saturation

Between 2013 and 2017, market penetration is expected to grow from 2% to around 10% in 2014 and 25% by 2017

The value of the market for HB-LEDs used in general lighting applications is likely to peak in 2017 before dropping away as the cost of the technology falls sharply.

That’s according to IMS Research market analyst Jamie Fox, who told delegates at a euroLED event, that the “best years” for LED vendors selling into the general lighting market would be 2013 - 2017.

Over that period, market penetration is expected to grow massively from its current unit level of around 2%, to 10% in 2014 and 25% by 2017. And although the cost of LEDs is likely to fall quickly over the next five years, that won’t be enough to hold back the value of the market for LED chips in general lighting until after 2017, Fox indicated.

But from 2018, saturation will take over and the falling prices of LEDs, combined with reduced rates of lamp replacement thanks to their long lifetime, will see the market for LEDs used in general lighting begin shrinking.

Speaking at the same event, European marketing director at chip producer Bridgelux, Tom van den Bussche, said that the switch to a Silicon platform would cut costs by 75%. This would be partly through the lower price of Silicon, but also through enabling a larger (8-inch) platform that takes advantage of obsolete Silicon wafer manufacturing fabs whose owners have now largely moved on to 12-inch Silicon.

Van den Bussche added that Bridgelux, fresh from another $20 million injection of venture funding that brings its total capital raised to more than $200 million, could be in production with GaN-on-Silicon LEDs by the end of this year.

Tom van den Bussche and Jamie Fox will be giving more in depth expert opinions on the future of LEDs at this year’s euroLED conference, between 13th and 14th June, NEC, Birmingham, UK.

Van den Bussche was on this year’s euroLED advisory board, which helped to build the conference agenda, bringing together a great line up of speakers to discuss market forecasts, new technology launches, regulations and standards and much more.

Other speaking companies include Philips Lumileds, Nichia, Osram, Cree, GE Lighting, European Commission, Luckgar, Forge Europa, Tridonic, Future Lighting Solutions, City University, LUX-TSI LTD and Helvar.
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