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Super high power LEDs to be in 50 percent of lighting shipments

By 2017, revenues for LEDs in lighting applications are expected to reach a total value of $13 billion
According to "The Market for High-Brightness LEDs in Lighting Applications," report released by Strategies Unlimited, revenues for LEDs in lighting applications, which includes both replacement lamps and luminaires, are expected to have a CAGR of 30 percent and reach a total value of $13 billion by 2017.

The chart below shows the market growth for LEDs in Lighting by major region.

HB-LEDs saw a precipitous fall in prices over the last several years, which helped reduce the price of LED lamps and luminaires, but this decrease in prices has been slowing down in recent times.

According to Philip Smallwood, Research Director of LEDs and Lighting at Strategies Unlimited, “ASPs of packaged LEDs are declining at a slower rate than previous years, as super high power LEDs increase in the market.

While prices for all LEDs are decreasing, the increased penetration of these SHP LEDs (which have a higher price) is raising the overall ASP for all packaged LEDs.” The graph below represents the growing market share of Super High Power (>5W) LED packages in the coming years.

Efficacy improvements are continuing to take place in the market as well, with the average efficacy of commercially available LEDs for lighting applications increasing to greater than 100 lumens per Watt for 1W packages while multichip arrays reached efficacy of 200 lumens per Watt.

LED efficacy is no longer the gating factor for LED applications – cost is. Lighting Applications have seen a variety of different packages used over the last year, including arrays, high CRI, tighter colour bins, directional, multi-directional and high voltage LEDs.

Strategies Unlimited reports that the growth rate for LED package units and revenues are both expected to be in double digits for the forecast period. According to Smallwood, “While growth in the market can be attributed to improvements in the technology and decreases in its price, the largest penetration increases seem to be coming from government mandates that either restrict incumbent lighting technologies or push the usage of LEDs.”

One of the largest impacts of these regulations will be seen in 2014 in the United States, as the implementation of the Energy and Independence Security Act of 2007 is phasing out 60 and 40W incandescent A-lamps.

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