IHS forecasts 28 percent increase in LED excess supply

Due to the major aggressive expansion plans of some Chinese LED companies, IHS forecasts that 220 GaN reactors will be installed in 2015, according to the latest data in the IHS LED Intelligence Service. 

It forecasts that the large number of MOCVD tool shipments will result in a 28 percent increase in the level of excess supply in the LED market.

This new capacity expansion is slightly different from what happened several years ago, when large numbers of LED companies in China purchased government-subsidised tools, says Alice Tao, senior analyst.

IHS forecasts that this year only large and publicly traded companies will purchase MOCVD phase epitaxy tools. The graph above shows the largest 20 MOCVD customers, by the end of 2014: eight of them were Chinese companies and three of those companies - Sanan, HC Semitek and Aucksun - have announced expansion plans for 2015.

2-inch equivalent GaN LED wafer capacity share by the end of 2015

Most of the new reactors purchased in 2015 will be new generation tools, providing double capacity per reactor. Sanan is projected to lead in 2-inch equivalent wafer capacity share, by the end of 2015; although, Epistar would still own the largest number of MOCVD tools. The largest three Chinese companies will achieve a combined market share of 27 percent in 2015.

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