TV shipments to fall below 197 million units
Slight growth of 0.2 percent expected in 2024, says TrendForce
TrendForce’s latest research shows that TV demand is suppressed due to high-interest-rates constraining consumer budgets in US and Europe, and a real estate bubble in China. Moreover, a significant increase in TV panel prices this year has led brands to scale down promotional events, resulting in a decline in global TV shipments to 197 million units in 2023—a YoY decrease of 2.1 percent.
TrendForce points out that TV shipments have, nevertheless shown QoQ growth this year. However, the traditional peak Q4 season only saw a growth rate of 4.7 percent. With just 54.55 million units shipped and an overall decline of 1.7 percent YoY, this marks the lowest in nearly a decade of both growth momentum and shipment volumes.
Since the easing of the pandemic in Europe and the US in 2H21, there has been a noticeable reduction in Q4 TV shipments in both 2022 and 2023. This suggests that the demand for TVs has been prematurely depleted, with changes in consumer habits and economic uncertainty further hindering shipment growth.
Samsung Electronics continues to lead in TV shipments this year, with an estimated 36.3 million units—a 9.8 percent decrease YoY and a significant market share reduction of 1.2 percentage points to 18.5 percent. Affected by high inflation in Europe and America, Samsung faced challenges in shipping mid to high-end products, with a decline in shipments of 8K, Mini LED, and QLED TVs. However, QD OLED TVs, supported by the group’s SDC panels, have experienced a 153 percent increase in shipments to 890,000 units, boosting Samsung’s OLED TV market share to 16.6 percent.
Hisense and TCL, ranked second and third, have achieved shipments of 27 million and 26.2 million units, up 12.4 percent and 16.3 percent YoY, respectively. Both Chinese brands have successfully raised their shipments volumes and market shares through low-cost export market strategies and localized production. Conversely, LG Electronics faced a downturn in OLED TV sales, with a nearly 30 percent YoY decline, leading to a 7.4 percent decrease in overall shipments to 22.91 million units.
TV demand unclear for 2024
In 2024, TV manufacturers aim to improve profitability by increasing the proportion of large-sized products and accelerating the phasing out of loss-making models. The Paris Olympics and UEFA Euro 2024 are expected to support a slight growth of 0.2 percent in global TV shipments to 197 million units next year.
However, as panel makers adopt production and pricing control strategies, TV panel prices are unlikely to fall below cash costs. TrendForce believes this will restrict the growth of generic brands and pose a significant challenge to any substantial increase in global TV shipments.
Moreover, if the global economy worsens due to geopolitical conflicts or other unforeseen factors, there is a potential risk of a decline in total TV shipments for 2024.