Major Report on 2.5G and 3G Cellular Infrastructure Published by Forward Concepts

Report predicts China to be the biggest cellular infrastructure market by 2004

Tempe AZ. Forward Concepts has announced the publication of an in-depth market and technology study of the worldwide cellular infrastructure. The new report, "Wireless Infrastructure Technology & Markets: Evolution to 2.5G & 3G," details infrastructure market metrics through 2005 and the technology changes necessary as cellular evolves from the current circuit-switched digital second-generation (2G) through packet-based 2.5G to multimedia-centric third-generation (3G) deployment.

The report forecasts that worldwide cellular subscribers will grow at a 23% rate, from 611 million in 2000 to 1.7 billion subscribers in 2005. However, fueled by competition among cellular service providers and their aggressive subscriber rate plans, the report predicts that infrastructure capacity demand will grow at an estimated 45% compound rate as a result of both increasing air time and greater bandwidth use by wireless subscribers.

The worldwide capital investment in base station and mobile switching system electronic equipment will grow at a compound rate of 16% from $58 billion in 2000 to $122 billion in 2005. The report details worldwide investment by major air interfaces and by region. It predicts that China will be the biggest market for base station and switch investment by 2004, exceeding that of North America.

"3G deployments will be both evolutionary and revolutionary," according to Dr. James E. (Jim) Gunn, Forward Concepts Associate and author of the report. He elaborated, "New 3G spectrum allocation will create new operators and infrastructures, while existing operators will evolve with transitions from current 2G cellular to 2.5G then to 3G technologies, which will bring exciting new services to the market."

Dr. Gunn emphasized the technical content of the report, saying, "We believe that DSP and semiconductor technology advances will be sufficient by 2002 to support Software-Defined Radio (SDR) technology deployments in both mobile terminal and infrastructure markets. The main issues will be the market needs, the supporting RF technologies and the cost of implementation. For mobile terminals, SDR will enable worldwide roaming by a single user with a single handset. For infrastructure, SDR will provide economies of scale, flexible 2.5G-to-3G transition, and flexible provisioning."

The report predicts early 3G deployments will begin with Japan and perhaps Korea, China, and parts of Europe. Wireless Internet deployment, beginning with the wireless application protocol (WAP), will likely be regionally motivated, with the greatest opportunities in countries with lesser wireline Internet penetration. Since the U.S. is the only country where wireline Internet penetration leads wireless, the best wireless Internet opportunities will probably be outside of the U.S.

The report tags Ericsson as the leading vendor of cellular infrastructure equipment in 1999, with an estimated 27% of the market, followed by Lucent and Nokia, each with a 14% market share. Motorola and Nortel are close behind, each with a 12% market share. Other significant infrastructure vendors include NEC, Siemens, Alcatel and Fujitsu.

The operational heart of the cellular infrastructure is based on Digital Signal Processing (DSP) technology. The report calls Lucent Microelectronics the leading DSP chip provider to this market for 1999, with a 36% market share, followed by Motorola and Texas Instruments with 21% and 14% shares, respectively.

According to Will Strauss, president of Forward Concepts, " Most wireless reports emphasize the subscriber side of the equation, and with cellular handsets having a six-month half-life, the replacement units now outnumber new subscriber counts by more than two to one. However, those handsets cannot work without the base stations and mobile switching centers necessary to support the wireless network. We believe that this is the most significant study of the cellular infrastructure market available today. It provides detailed subscriber history by country and major service providers and profiles major U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). The report is technically detailed enough to provide network planners with guidelines for future base station deployments. Dr. Gunn has produced an outstanding report and we are very proud of it."

The 270-page report, "Wireless Infrastructure Technology & Markets," includes 100 figures and 60 tables and is priced at $4,500.00 in North America. The report is available from Forward Concepts, 1575 W. University Dr. #111, Tempe AZ 85281 (Tel: 480-968-3759, Fax: 480-968-7145, email: info@fwdconcepts.com). Details of the report are available on the company s website at .